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On the first working day after the Spring Festival holiday of the year of Tiger, both urea futures and spot goods have made a good start. The urea price started on a high point. Returning from the holiday, the domestic urea has been operated stably and strongly, and the prices in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei and other places rise slightly, with a range of about 10-50 yuan / ton. The reference prices in mainstream regions are around 2470-2620 yuan / ton. The new orders in the market have been followed up, and some are still mainly delivered in the early stage.
Supply side: affected by the Winter Olympic Games, some units in Shandong, Hebei and Jincheng regions stopped and reduced during the Spring Festival holiday. In addition, some units in Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang were stopped for a short time. The domestic daily output decreased significantly during the holiday. The supply side fluctuated narrowly on Monday. The domestic urea operating rate was 72.54% and the daily output was about 154900 tons. The supply side is favorable to stimulate the market, but on the whole, it is still loose.
Demand side: the mainstream compound fertilizer enterprises maintain a relatively high start-up during the holidays, and some compound fertilizer enterprises will resume to work and produce in succession recently. Farmers in Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei and other places need to start up, but local market demand has not been restored yet, and the plate factory is still in vacation mode, and expected to work after the lantern festival.
Futures: on February 7, the opening price of urea was as high as 2605 yuan / ton. After opening, the price rose sharply, closing at 2684 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton from the settlement price of the previous trading day.
Recently, local agricultural demand has been started, the downstream demand follows up appropriately, and the market trading atmosphere is improving. In addition, the main futures rose sharply, and with the support of some enterprises, it is expected that the short-term urea market will continue to stabilize in a small and medium-sized upward trend, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of high daily output and pay attention to the start-up and follow-up demand, so as to avoid blindly chasing up.