The expectation of the domestic urea market before the festival is still relatively partial to the supplier, that is slightly stronger. From the perspective of the trend of the domestic market during the National Day to the present, it is basically the same. The price fluctuates narrowly within the range of 30-50 yuan/ton. According to the short-term analysis of the current situation in China, the price is still under pressure. The specific reasons are as follows.

Short-term daily output is slightly low, and the expectation is higher than the same period

Due to cost, policy, maintenance, failure and other reasons, the daily output of urea industry is relatively low recently, which is mainly for the high daily output in the third quarter. It is expected that, on the premise, the daily output of gas enterprises does not decline in a short time, the probability of narrow range operation of daily output in the middle and late ten days is high. Therefore, compared with the same period, the level is slightly higher near 10000 tons, and the supply is more relaxed, which is also the pressure of the upward market.

Short-term decline of rigid demand and continuous reserves

In October, with the planting of two seasons a year, the autumn fertilizer sales of compound fertilizer also entered the end stage. Before the production of high nitrogen fertilizer, the commencement of compound fertilizer will be relatively low, and the demand for raw urea is also at a low level. In terms of direct agricultural application of urea, it also enters the off-season of fertilizer use in a year, with the demand mainly for reserves and very limited rigid demand. Then the decline of just demand has become a burden on the upward market. However, the demand for grassroots reserves and the demand for short storage tasks will lead to bargain hunting (or slightly buying up), which will play a supporting role in the downward market.

Inventory continued to rise, sales continued to be flat

The supply is relatively loose, the demand has just declined for a short time, the supply and demand is loose, and the price has not dropped significantly, which is why the enterprise inventory has shown a growth trend. After all, the market sales have always been insipid. However, the increase of inventory, including the poor transportation caused by the epidemic, makes the inventory in some regions grow passively, which reduces the potential impact on the supply of goods in some regions and buffers the decline of the market.

Through comprehensive analysis, although we can see that the supply and demand environment is relatively loose, the market price is temporarily at the current level, and there are various factors that are still in progress or have not been determined. Before these factors occur or change, it is still difficult to determine whether the market trend is a big rise or fall. In the short term, we can only follow the trend of the times, and the necessary buying and selling on the cheap.