The recent domestic urea market is still in the stage of market chaos due to the impact of public health events. Taking mainstream areas as an example, under normal circumstances: the price in Northern Jiangsu is slightly higher than that in Linyi, while the price in Linyi is slightly higher than that in Heze. But the actual price level: the price in Northern Jiangsu is still more than 3000 yuan / ton, the price in Linyi has fallen to less than 2900 yuan / ton, and the price in Heze is between the two. The market in the three regions is completely irregular. Therefore, if we use supply and demand to analyze the market trend, we can only revise everything after the event, then the regional chaotic market will continue. Therefore, before the normal operation of the market, we first analyze the supply side.

Supply summary of the first quarter.

Thanks to the state's supply guarantee policy, the policy of limiting production in autumn and winter is significantly weaker than that in previous years, so the output in January 2022 starts at a high level. According to the statistics of Longzhong data, the physical output of urea in China in January 2022 was 4.65 million tons, an increase of nearly 1 million tons over the same period. When it is expected that the next production will continue to operate at a high level, the production will be limited, the failure and maintenance will increase from February to March, and the production will return to the same period level. According to the statistics of Longzhong data, the physical output of urea from February to March was 9.32 million tons, an increase of only tens of thousands of tons over the same period, which is one of the reasons why it has been felt that there is no sufficient supply of goods.

Commencement expectation analysis.

In April, the daily output of domestic urea industry started from a relatively low level and is currently in the recovery stage. However, due to more short-term troubleshooting, the recovery trend is relatively slow. According to the analysis of the expected start-up of the industry from April to may, there are not many enterprises planning maintenance. At present, there are only two enterprises with maintenance plans in April, Shanhua and Fudao. The reason for the fluctuation of the daily production trend of the industry is mostly the short-term failure of the enterprise. It is expected that it will fluctuate in the range of 160000-170000 tons, and the output will increase significantly compared with the previous two months.

Comparison of supply over the same period.

Because there is no clear news about the export, it is estimated temporarily according to the low volume. Combined with the just expected commencement of the industry in the next two months, the domestic urea supply is roughly estimated. The supply increase from January to March is small, mainly due to the increase supply in January. By the end of May, the increase in supply is expected to exceed 2 million tons. At that time, the transportation situation will be better than the current situation, and the loose supply of goods in the market will be better than the current situation.

Although it seems to be expected in the future that the domestic urea supply is increasing, after entering May, another round of large-scale agricultural peak season is coming, and the industrial demand is also relatively stable. In addition, with the expectation of increased demand this year, the market with tight balance between supply and demand may continue for some time.