Before and after the Spring Festival, with the continuous recovery of some gas-head urea production enterprises, the capacity utilization rate of China's urea industry rose significantly as expected. According to the latest data, the capacity utilization rate of China's urea industry in the current period (January 19-25) was 73.24%, up 3.69% month-on-month and 3.14% year-on-year; The weekly average daily urea output was 153100 tons, showing an increase of 7700 tons on a month-on-month basis and an increase of 5000 tons on a year-on-year basis.

The increase in the capacity utilization rate of China's urea industry is mainly credited to the continuous recovery of gas-head enterprises. As of January 28, about 16 gas-head urea production enterprises that had been shut down in the early stage have recovered 7 in succession, and most of them are expected to recover in February. In the current period (January 19-25), the capacity utilization rate of China's urea gas production enterprises was 40.64%, up 7.28% month-on-month and down 12.62% compared with the same period. As of January 25, the total daily output of China's urea gas-production enterprises was 22200 tons, an increase of 3300 tons from last week (January 18), and a decrease of 13100 tons from 35100 tons in the same period last year. Therefore, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate and daily output level of gas-head enterprises.

For the future development of the capacity utilization rate of China's urea industry, combined with the current production resumption time of parking enterprises, it is preliminarily estimated that the first significant increase will occur around February 5, and the second increase may occur between February 10-15.

On the premise that there is no planned overhaul of enterprises for a short time, with the continuous recovery of the early shutdown enterprises, the capacity utilization rate of China's urea industry is expected to reach around 80% around the middle of February, and the daily output will rise to 170000 tons. However, considering the possible short-term failure, this is relatively higher than the capacity utilization rate and high daily production level in the same period, which may occur slightly later than the expected time. However, in terms of the overall industry commencement trend, the supply should be sufficient for the same period.