With the end of the National Day holiday, also the end of the 2023 statutory holiday, the overall price of urea has experienced a small fluctuation, ranging from 20 to 40 yuan (ton price, the same below). Currently, the mainstream factory quotation for urea in Shandong is 2350-2430 yuan, and the receiving price for urea by composite fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2410 yuan; The mainstream quotation for urea in Hebei region is 2420-2430 yuan; in Henan region is 2360-2370 yuan; The mainstream quotation for urea in Shanxi region is 2300-2310 yuan, and the price for large particles is 2390 yuan. Due to the rapid decline in urea factory quotations before the holiday, the market in some regions has continued to be weak before the holiday. However, while watching downstream, some urea factory quotations have temporarily remained stable, waiting for procurement follow-up. Both upstream and downstream parties are closely monitoring each other's "flaws", waiting for opportunities to enter the market or increase prices accordingly.

The 'opportunities' waiting for downstream markets - weak cost support and increased supply. Although it has recently entered a peak period of coal consumption and heating is about to be carried out in various regions, the overall price of coal this year is lower than that of the same period in previous years, and most urea prices are still sufficient to cover costs, with considerable profits. In addition, the industry profit of urea this year is still relatively high, resulting in insufficient overall cost support, Recently, with the introduction of some new urea plants and the resumption of production of previously repaired plants, the daily physical production of urea has reached a level of over 170000 tons. Some industries have stated that although there are environmental production restrictions in the Jincheng area and potential natural gas limits in the future, the estimated production may remain at around 170000 tons. Against such a supply background, there is a possibility of a decline in the price of urea, and even the expectation of a significant price reduction cannot be ruled out. Under the influence of a large number of transactions in the export sector, downstream procurements can only proceed after the price level meets psychological expectations.

Some factories say there are still "weaknesses" downstream - low social inventory and upcoming winter fertilizer storage. Similarly, due to the high wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream this year, relatively conservative procurement and relatively small social stock, once there is demand in the market, it will cause panic and centralized procurements. This is also one of the reasons why the urea price level has been at a high level so far this year. Although the demand for autumn fertilizer has basically ended, inventory in Northeast and other regions is currently at a relatively low level. Some downstream production enterprises have stated that, once the production for winter storage fertilizers begins in November, there will also be a possibility of centralized procurements leading to price increases. In addition, it is still unclear when winter storage will be launched on a large scale. As the saying goes, "with grain in hand, one should not panic", some customers who plan to reserve not only have to compete with factories to find a way to calm down, but also compete with light storage and big trade.

Based on the current market situation, there is room for a downward trend in urea prices. However, some industries have also indicated that the recent reduction in urea prices may be limited, coupled with the gradual arrival of weak reserve fertilizer, market panic still exists.