Autumn is the harvest season, and also the big peak season of "the gold September and silver October" in most industries, and compound fertilizer is no exception of course. It is reported that Autumn is one of the most important seasons of the year for compound fertilizer, with the demand accounting for about 40% of the whole year. In some regions, the demand in this season alone can account for 60% of the whole year. However, the peak Autumn season is not prosperous this year, and some goods are still slightly "bleak". Who moved the Autumn "cheese" of compound fertilizer?

The price difference between compound fertilizer and competitive products has narrowed, and some shares may be occupied. There is a strong correlation between compound fertilizer and diammonium phosphate. According to statistics, the correlation coefficient between them is 0.92 within 2022. Especially in the Autumn market, as the wheat fertilizer, the two can replace each other. Although the prices of diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer fell to varying degrees from July to September, the decline of diammonium phosphate was relatively large, especially in the middle and late August, which not only narrowed the price difference with compound fertilizer (at present, the price difference between 64% of Shandong's EX-warehouse price and 45% of Shandong's S has narrowed to 100-150 yuan/ton, about 500 yuan/ton lower than the high price in June), It also increases the cost performance advantage of diammonium in a disguised way (the current price difference is obviously lower than the normal price difference of the two products). Especially, with the improvement of the performance price ratio of diammonium, the shipment of high phosphorus wheat compound fertilizer products in Shandong and Hebei is greatly affected. In addition, the spot supply of diammonium market is abundant, and some of them have been radiated to Shanxi, Anhui and other places. Therefore, the market share originally belonging to compound fertilizer in Autumn is very likely to be squeezed by diammonium, which may end in disguise or reduce the application of compound fertilizer.

The price difference between compound fertilizer and urea is enlarged, and the amount of locally mixed fertilizer may increase. Compound fertilizer is greatly restricted by raw materials, especially by urea as a wind vane. In addition, due to product attributes, the response to market changes is relatively lagging or slow. It can be seen that the price difference between compound fertilizer and urea is constantly being corrected through the adjustment from July to August and even the first ten days of September, but it has not yet returned to the normal range, and is significantly higher than the same period last year. The unreasonable price difference will inevitably lead to new profit products, such as mixed fertilizer. It is reported that this year in Shaanxi, Henan and other places, mixed wheat fertilizer for sulfur and high nitrogen is more common. Although the recognition of mixed fertilizer in the mainland is not very high, with the improvement of cost performance ratio, it may also occupy the share of some formal products of compound fertilizer to some extent.

However, compound fertilizer is still one of the main recommended fertilizers in Autumn due to its advantages of less side components, uniform nutrient release, and stable and long fertilizer effect. In the Technical Opinions on Wheat Cropping in Autumn and Winter in 2022, issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in mid September, scientific fertilization was required, in which sufficient base fertilizer was required for irrigated. It was generally understood that the base nitrogen application accounted for 50% - 60% of the total nitrogen application during the whole growth period, and the base phosphorus and potassium application was 50% - 100%, which was adjusted by region and region; At the same time, it is advocated to increase the application of organic fertilizer and biological fertilizer, and expand the proportion of slow and controlled release fertilizer and special compound fertilizer.

In addition, judging from the performance of the fertilizer price market in the past week, DAP showed signs of bottoming out at a certain stage. Urea was boosted by demand, Indian bidding and other factors, and the market volatility was strong, which had certain support for compound fertilizers. The Autumnal Equinox is coming, and the Autumn and Winter wheat planting in China is about to begin. It is estimated that the sown area of winter wheat in 2022 will be stabilized at about 350 million mu. At present, there is still a vacancy in the wheat fertilizer market in Autumn, and the compound fertilizer still has a single warehouse replenishment meeting to show its skills for the "cheese" in Autumn.