On Monday, the price of monoammonium rose again, the goods are in short supply on the market, and the market prices are expected to rise. Up to now, the average market price of 55% monoammonium phosphate powder is 4354 yuan / ton, with an increase of 697 yuan / ton, increasing by about 19.06% compared with 3657 yuan / ton at the end of last month, and rose by 1476 yuan / ton, 40.36%, compared with 2878 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year. It can be seen from the rising range that the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise in 2022. The current price has already hit a new record, and companies have not stopped quoting. Affected by raw materials, the monoammonium phosphate market will continue to rise in the short term.

Specifically, at present, the mainstream quotation of 55% powdered monoammonium in Hubei is 4300-4400 yuan / ton, and a high-end quotation of some enterprises can be up to 4500 yuan / ton. At present, it seems that most monoammonium manufacturers have suspended quotations and receipts, downstream traders and factories are cautious in procurement, the market trading atmosphere is reduced, and some enterprises are also affected by raw materials, the output is declining and the supply is tightening. It is expected that the market price of monoammonium will rise in the short term, with a range of 100-200 yuan / ton, and the market will fluctuate.

As for prices, before the end of the final draft was due, the mainstream price of 55% powder in Hubei, Henan and other provinces in Central China was 4300-4400 yuan / ton, 58% powder was 4500-4550 yuan / ton, and 60% powdered monoammonium was 4650-4750 yuan / ton; In Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and other provinces in Southwest China, the mainstream offer of 55% powdered is 4350-4450 yuan / ton, 58% powder is 4550-4650 yuan / ton, and 60% powdered monoammonium is 4700-4800 yuan / ton; In Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu and other provinces in East China, 55% powder was 4400-4500 yuan / ton, 58% powder was 4550-4650 yuan / ton, and 60% powdered monoammonium is 4700-4800 yuan / ton; The quotation of 55% powder in Hebei Province in North China was 4300-4400 yuan / ton, that of 58% powder was 4450-4550 yuan / ton, and 60% powdered monoammonium is 4600-4700 yuan / ton;

As for the international prices, this week, the international price of monoammonium continued to weaken and the market focus shifted downward. At present, the FOB price of 55% monoammonium prill in China was $949.5/ton, showing a decrease of $48.5/ton compared with $998 / ton at the end of last month, with a range of about 4.86%; 60% particles were $1022 / ton, a decrease of $67.5/ton from $1089.5/ton at the end of last month, with a range of about 6.2%; 63% particles were $1103.5/ton, a decrease of $75 / ton compared with $1178.5/ton at the end of last month, with a range of 3.61%.

In terms of cost and profit, from the perspective of raw materials, at present, the tax included reference price of 30% phosphate rock ship board in Hubei is 820 yuan / ton; The reference price of mainstream granular sulfur in the Yangtze River is 4085 yuan / ton; The mainstream reference price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei is about 5030 yuan / ton; According to theoretical estimation, the cost of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei is about 4189 yuan / ton, an increase of 373 yuan / ton compared with the end of last month, with a range of 9.78%.

For demand, the overall implementation of the compound fertilizer market has raised the quotation, the price trend has risen, the price of raw materials has risen, and the cost side has led to high pressure on the production and receipt of compound fertilizer manufacturers, so the production is determined by sales. In terms of demand, summer corn fertilizer is about to start, and the downstream distribution progress has improved as soon as it needs to be pulled. However, most manufacturers stated that the prices of raw materials are high, which is difficult to be directly transmitted to the terminal, the operation pressure of compound fertilizer manufacturers is high, and the support of new order trading volume is poor. Up to now, the market price of compound fertilizer is 3500-3700 yuan / ton for 45% Cl (15-15-15), 3700-3900 yuan / ton for 45% S (15-15-15), and 3300-3700 yuan / ton for 40% corn fertilizer.

For future forecast, from a comprehensive point of view, the positive support of the raw material side is still strong, and the market readjusts in high level. Although the prices of sulfur and synthetic ammonia fell slightly, they still remained at a high level. In addition, the price of phosphorus ore was also rising due to the tight supply. After May, fertilizer use continued to advance in summer with good demand, but the current sharp rise in prices hindered the enthusiasm of downstream procurement to a certain extent. Therefore, under the dual support of market demand and price, monoammonium is expected to push up in the short term, and the market trend will rise, with a range of 200-300 yuan / ton.