For half a month since the opening of urea futures after the Spring Festival, it has continued to fall sharply, which made the downstream nervous and the upstream fluttered, with the main futures falling to less than 2400 yuan/ton at one time and the deep discount exceeding 300 yuan/ton. The sharp fall of urea futures led to the weakening of the spot market. As of the 15th, the decline of the mainstream spot market was generally 70-110 yuan/ton. On Tuesday, urea futures increased, and closed up 53 yuan/ton on the 15th, significantly boosting the spot sentiment.

The time has come to the middle of February, and the peak season of agricultural demand is coming soon, but urea is showing a weak decline. The main reason is the continuous decline of urea futures. After the market mentality was crushed, it suppressed most of the expected demand, and also continued to amplify the supply, cost, export and others. However, as far as the current time node, the dominant factor of urea market is still the change of demand side under the influence of mentality.

Is there a demand? The answer is yes. The spring ploughing season is coming soon. Feel any emotions? Emotions are mostly disturbed by futures. Since the urea futures were listed on August 9, 2019, the price discovery function embodied in the futures has also made the urea practitioners pay more attention to the rise and fall of the futures, and the emotional impact on the spot has become more and more important. It can be said that "success in futures, while failure in futures, either!" But, it is undeniable that the rise and fall of futures are more due to the disorderly rise and fall of funds. How risky the futures are? Learn by yourself!

At present, the futures rebounded, the basis contracted, and the sentiment improved. Although the price of some urea enterprises has still lowered, the receipt of orders from upstream factories in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and other mainstream regions has improved significantly. Next, although the advanced orders still need to be accumulated, although the supply and demand and cost margins have not abated, and although the negative impact of the National Reserve Bank has not yet begun, from the perspective of previous upstream inertial operations, it is expected that the short-term urea market or stalemate will stabilize, and it is not ruled out that there would be a narrow rebound in some parts. Will continue to pay attention to the emotional side and the continuity of the demand-side.