In 2019, the market of compound fertilizer is stumbling. Firstly, let's slowly recall the market situation of each season of compound fertilizer in 2019. Only by reviewing the past and learning new things, and knowing the market trend in 2019, will we have a better forecast of the future market in 2020.

From January to March, compound fertilizer market goes from weakness to recovery. In January and February, compound fertilizer collection in winter is slower, mainly by the psychological shadow of " increase in the price of off-season, fall in the price of the peak season" and the influence of the Spring Festival atmosphere. Enthusiasm of downstream enterprise for fertilizer is poorer, also in the enterprise operating rate. However, after the Spring Festival, compound fertilizer prices have improved slightly in March, the downstream demand in the northern areas such as north China and northeast China begins to release, although progress lagged slightly, it improved greatly compared to the early stage. In early March, to promote the development of the market, part of enterprises intended to reduce the price to attract orders. Unexpectedly, raw materials got good news, the urea prices rebounded to high position, making fertilizer enterprises regain confidence of keeping the price. With the addition of pull of the demand, the price of high-nitrogen maize fertilizer rose slightly, while the price of other types of products remained firm. Spring plowing is coming, downstream must start to prepare fertilizer.

From April to June, it's the peak period of the whole year. It can be said that April was the most hot sale period for compound fertilizer, most market demand in spring of northeast China started, the local had a small amount of delivering goods. In the middle, urea quotation rebounded, having a certain effect on high nitrogen fertilizer quotations. During the demand season of high nitrogen fertilizer, enterprise cost of compound fertilizer increased, so quotation for high nitrogen fertilizer rose slightly, but enough orders have been placed before the price went up, at most shipping to April. In addition, quotation of the low-end product in Shandong, Jiangsu and other regions also rose, enterprise delivered goods quickly. However, compound fertilizer prices began to decline from May to June. After May Day, demand ended in northeast China in the future, only a small amount of nitrogen, potassium fertilizer demand in the central plains. But urea prices fell, replenishment demand in the late summer was also not increased, order prices of some compound fertilizer enterprises appeared to fall, even with sulfenyl fertilizer product release at the end of June.

From July to September, autumn fertilizer with explosive products appeared on the market. In early July, the autumn fertilizer market opened with the sulfenyl fertilizer explosive products of a few enterprises in Hubei, causing an uproar in the market. 45% sulfenyl general explosive products quoted at about EXW 2180 yuan/ton, the early operation of the compound fertilizer enterprises received a certain amount of advance payment. Following the arrival of the autumn fertilizer requirement, rate of operation of compound fertilizer enterprises rose again. In August, the average rate of operation of most of the large compound fertilizer enterprises has rebounded to about 51%, which is the highest throughout the year, but the high price of wheat fertilizer in autumn hindered the downstream, the overall market of fertilizer in autumn is not ideal. The downstream is not positive to pay and take goods. Mainly, diammonium (the substitute of autumn fertilizer) prices have been falling, compound fertilizer price was difficult to compare, demand of autumn fertilizer gradually came to an end in September. Moreover, the purchase price of autumn grain was not high, replenishment demand of downstream was poor, compound fertilizer quotation had drastic decline compared with the early stage.

From October to December, how "miserable" is winter storage of compound fertilizer? Exhibitions were held across the country in October. Compound fertilizer enterprises were eager to participate in all kinds of exhibitions, and held many marketing conferences successively for winter storage, prices have been falling, which still failed to save the bleak market of compound fertilizer winter storage, mainly because the serious losses of winter storage for most dealers, fluctuated price of urea, straight low prices of diammonium and so on, leading to the hysteresis phenomenon of winter storage for fertilizer of downstream. By the end of December, fertilizer storage of downstream in northeast area was only about 30%-40% of total in previous years, even the local was still waiting to see.

Overall, compound fertilizer market was weaker in 2019, in addition to the good situation of spring from March to April, many shipments were not seen in other months. Ultimately, excess capacity of compound fertilizer product is still the most basic problem. Of course, in 2019, a few compound fertilizer enterprises in the process of capacity elimination has withdrawn from the market, but the reduce speed of demand is greater than elimination rate of compound fertilizer capacity, especially the conventional general-purpose products were not competitive, so if you want to make one sunshine avenue, probably you still need to go through a period of painful torment.