On June 24, China composite fertilizer retail price index (CCRI) was 2499.06 points, down 0.82 points, 0.03%, month-on-month, but rose 51.21 points, 2.09%, year-on-year, and increased 52.35 points, 2.51%, higher than that of the base period.

Supply situation

In terms of nitrogen fertilizer, the overall operating rate of urea enterprises increased, and the operating rate of coal head and gas head enterprises increased as well, then the market supply was loose. As for phosphate fertilizer, diammonium enterprises overall operating rate declined, Plants of Yuntianhua in turn overhaul.In terms of potash fertilizer, the arrival price of 60% powder crystal of salt lake benchmark product is 2,350 yuan/ton, and the rebate is 50 yuan/ton. Port inventory remains high, and prices have been loose. The arrival of potassium of border trade was suspended, which resulted in a tight supply and quiet turnover. Regarding compound fertilizer, with the end of the summer market, the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is at a low state, producing on demand mainly.

Demand

The overall demand of nitrogen fertilizer is low, and the agricultural demand is in the gap period. Industrial demand tends to purchase in small orders. With the coming Indian tender, exports of urea from China are expected. In the aspect of phosphate fertilizer, the summer domestic market of diammonium is basically finished, and the sales focus of enterprises turns to exports. However, the export market is generally affected by the high inventory in India and Pakistan, so the price declines, and the export of diammonium in China is unhindered. In terms of potash fertilizer, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is not improving, and the purchase demand of potash fertilizer is low. As for compound fertilizer, the demand of high nitrogen fertilizer in summer basically ends up, and the overall demand is light.

The international market

The price of international nitrogen fertilizer remains firm, and the market supply is tight, India will soon release a urea tender, with an expected demand between 1 million and 1.2 million tons. China may gain the opportunity to export urea. The price of international phosphate fertilizer decreases generally. China's diammonium is mainly shipped to India and Southeast Asian markets, but the price continues to decline. China's diammonium export price is about 340 dollars per ton in FOB term. International potash fertilizer price declines, and demand in southeast Asian market remains, and the price stays stable.

Forecase of market outlook

In nitrogen fertilizer market, urea supply continued to loose. In terms of demand, agricultural demand is still in the gap period, and industrial demand is mainly based on small orders, which is generally light. Internationally, with the coming bid from India, China may export urea, which is expected to support the domestic market prices. To sum up, the price of urea is expected to remain stable in the short term.

As for phosphate fertilizer market, diammonium supply is overall adequate. The domestic summer market demand basically continues, and the sales focus of enterprises turns to the export market, but the international diammonium price is in the downward channel, and diammonium from China is affected by the high inventory in the Indian and Pakistani markets, resulting in the decreased price of export, and less new orders. Raw material prices are basically stable. In conclusion, it is expected that the diammonium price will maintain a stable operation in the short term, and further decline may not be ruled out.

In potassium fertilizer market, port potassium inventory is still high, the demand side is not support positively, and the market is still oversupplied. It is expected that the short-term price of potassium chloride will be weak and stably operated.

In terms of compound fertilizer market, the overall operating rate of enterprises is low. Utilization of fertilizer in summer was ended. Demand support is insufficient. In terms of raw materials, the price of urea has stabilized, the prices of monoammonium and potash fertilizer have stabilized, and the support for the cost of compound fertilizer has weakened.To sum up, the price of compound fertilizer is expected to be stable in the short term.