This month, the market fluctuated obviously. The average market price was as high as 3200 yuan / ton in the last ten days of last month. As of press time, it had dropped to 3062 yuan / ton. However, recently, some markets have shown rebounded signs. Is it possible that a new round of rising market will start again? Let's sort it out.

Macro environment: This year, the national "three summer" large-scale machine harvest of wheat was launched in an all-round way from May 28, and was rapidly promoted from the South to the North. As of June 21, Sichuan, Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other provinces have harvested 301million mu, with a harvest progress of 99.2%, and the national large-scale machine harvest has basically ended.

In other words, the fertilizer market has entered the gap period of agricultural demand, and the market transaction is mainly based on industrial demand. However, industrial production such as compound fertilizer is mainly based on digestion of early-stage inventory, and the purchase is mostly just in need of replenishment, so the demand is difficult to support the market.

Market: At the beginning of this month, due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, orders were received in advance, and the transactions of new orders before the festival were few. In terms of factories, the orders received in advance and to be issued are supported. Most of them can be maintained until after the holiday, and the quotation is mainly stable. In the middle and early ten days, the northwest, northeast, East and central China witnessed a short wave of demand for chemical fertilizer. The market mentality was boosted, the futures market rose sharply, and the market ushered in a short peak. Subsequently, the downstream demand declined rapidly. At the same time, the local demand in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang was exhausted, and the supply of goods rapidly outward impacted the surrounding markets. The futures market fell, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The already tight downstream market fell into a stalemate and became more cautious in taking goods. The market price fell rapidly in a short period of time, with a weekly decline of more than 150 yuan / ton in the mainstream and even more than 200 yuan / ton in some parts. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down in the market, the factory has difficulty in receiving orders, and the shipping pressure is increasing day by day. The quotation is passively lowered to attract orders. On the other hand, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of finance, together with relevant parties, have arranged a temporary reserve of more than 3 million tons of summer managed fertilizer to meet the needs of fertilizer for agricultural production in the "three summers" this year. Since June, the reserve chemical fertilizer has been put on the market as required. The overall market is oversupplied, dominated by bad news, and the market is weak and difficult to change.

The market price has dropped significantly compared with that of a month ago, and the market mentality has improved. Some downstream companies have started to connect with low-cost sources one after another, and the low-end transactions have improved. Some factories are trying to rise. High price transaction is difficult, and the main reason is the continuous decline.

Outlook: At present, the market demand is still weak, and the fertilizer preparation is ahead of schedule this autumn. The downstream is cautious and sensitive to the market. At this stage, there is no obvious good or bad in the market, and the downstream is not enthusiastic about taking goods. In terms of supply, the inventory pressure of factories in mainstream regions is not small, and foreign low-cost goods continue to impact the market. At the same time, the volume of summer field management fertilizer will be regulated and controlled for the regional market, and the supply will be loose and abundant in a short time.

In the short term, high prices will continue to move downward and close, and low-end prices will fluctuate and rise in time. However, demand support is weak, and the conditions for a sharp rise are not available for the time being. It is expected that the short-term market fluctuation will be sorted out and operated, and attention should be paid to the downstream fertilizer procurement opportunity or new market support point.