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According to a report by Crisil Ratings, the Indian urea industry has made significant progress in self-sufficiency. Due to the launch and stable promotion of new production capacity in the country, it is expected that the industry's import dependence will decrease from a peak of 30% in the 2020-21 fiscal year to 10-15% in the short to medium term.
With the increase in utilization, these new factories will receive stable and steady returns. As for the remaining production capacity, the profit for this fiscal year will remain stable, consistent with raw material prices and policies.
From the fiscal year 2007 to 2012, the demand for urea in India grew more than production, resulting in an increase in import share to 20% to 25% of consumption.
Anand Kulkarni, Director of Rating at CRISIL, said, "The 2012 NIP (New Investment Policy) played a crucial role in structurally reducing import dependence. As operations stabilize, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of new factories will reach 100% this fiscal year, compared to 85-90% in the previous fiscal year. Another factory may be put into operation in the next fiscal year, which will further increase domestic production.
Higher capacity utilization will improve the operational efficiency and profitability of new factories in this fiscal year. The rating agency stated that looking ahead, the use of nanourea may increase in the medium term, accelerating India's self-sufficiency.
The Indian government imports urea (for agricultural purposes) in the name of the government through the Ministry of Fertilizer to bridge the gap between production and demand. According to official data, India will import 7.042 million tons of urea, worth of 2.608 billion US dollars in 2023-24.