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At present, potash fertilizer is in the off-season of sales, and domestic demand releases slowly. Downstream factories and traders do not accept the current price well and are not eager to purchase. Market participants are pessimistic about the future market, and it is expected that demand will be weaker in the later period. The decrease in cash flow and the increase in storage costs related to the decline in demand will put pressure on domestic producers.
The bearish sentiment in the international market remains, and the liquidity is poor. Now, it depends on which party of the transaction firstly gives up its pricing. The market is in a serious stalemate, but the market expects that the price will continue to decline. Looking at the neighboring markets, some importers of granular potassium sulfate in Thailand and Vietnam are expected to reduce their purchases in the fourth quarter due to the sufficient stocks in Thailand and Vietnam and the reduced demand of farmers. Some plantations in Southeast Asia are also expected to reduce the demand for potassium chloride and purchase NPKs or NKs instead, because the potassium content in these products is considered more valuable. However, the main manufacturers did not report the use of standard potassium and granular potassium. For Laos products, the granular price is about CFR usd780/ton, while the standard product is less than CFR usd700/t. The price of granular potassium chloride exported from Laos to Thailand importers is as low as usd600/t. Market trading activities are limited because Thailand is in the off-season, while Vietnam's demand is still sluggish due to high prices.
From the perspective of Indonesia, the domestic demand is weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and there is almost no trading activities. In mid September, at least two potassium chloride ships from BPC arrived at Gresik Port. It is reported that the price of these goods is CFR usd800-900/ton, but it has not been confirmed by the buyer.
Therefore, from an international perspective, the market sentiment is still pessimistic and prices are still under pressure. The current sluggish global demand will further depress prices, but the market may enter a period of stability at the end of the fourth quarter, when the procurement in Brazil, Europe and Southeast Asia should pick up.
However, the domestic potash fertilizer market is still in a steady downward trend, due to the fact that the enterprises of compound fertilizer and potassium sulfate are not active in purchasing potash fertilizer. They mainly purchase for rigid demand. There is a lack of large orders in the market, so the price guidance is of little significance. On the whole, the main problem faced by the domestic potassium chloride market is the imbalance between supply and demand. The port inventory increases slowly, the demand is not strong, and the international price continues to decline. The domestic market lacks support. Therefore, in the short term, the domestic trend of potassium chloride is not optimistic, although some regions are holding their own prices, and some varieties still have a downward trend.